Trading Injured players is certainly a unique way to trade. It takes determination, fantastic emotional control & patience. In this post we explain what ‘Injury Trading’ is, how you can do this yourself & the benefits and potential effects of performing this type of trade.
What is Injury Trading?
Injury Trading can be many things, but I like to simplify it as buying players as they get injured & selling them when they recover from injury.
There will be a few questions you may ask, firstly… Why buy injured players, as if they aren’t playing you won’t earn dividends.
The Answer? We aren’t looking for dividend returns on these injured players. However, if your player is a highly rated player, you may find he will have a good chance of earning dividends, as the media will be interested in when he may return to the field again.
When we buy injured players, we are buying them with one sole aim. To make a lot of money on them!
(Which, I suppose is the same for every purchase you make…)
Fundamentals of Injury Trading
When you are buying an injured player, it may take a lot of experience and a bit of guesswork.
You will need to note down what this players price was before injury, but also consider his Form. If he wasn’t playing well before his injury, you may find his price is less than what it should peak at.
However, if your injured player IS in form, you may find that he might not reach the pinnacle price he hit previously, as this price was driven by his performances. For example, if the player has earned multiple dividend payouts, more traders would have piled their cash into him, driving the price up.
It can be very tricky, you have to use your analysis and a bit of guesswork to predict what price this player should hit.
One thing I have noticed on football index, players always seem to recover!
Next, you have to control your emotions. When you purchase an injured player, there may be lots of ‘short term’ traders who are selling their shares in him. Remember, not everyone has the same game plan! Short Term traders ‘hunt’ for Performance Buzz dividends, buying players on the previous night, hoping to hit a return.
If this happens to you, you may notice that the shares you purchased in a player fall even further. This happened to me with Paul Pogba, I sold him at £3.70 before he increased by 80p when he returned! If you choose a strategy, ensure you stick with it and you will become a better trader.
You will most likely experience the above, as we can’t buy every player once they have reached their lowest point. However, you will gain experience and be able to learn where to Open your trade in injured footballers. The closer you get to the players lowest cost, the more money you will make. It’s just not easy to read where the lowest point is. For this reason, I tell traders who are adopting this strategy to open up at the point they are comfortable with.
This doesn’t mean to be overly cautious, let’s be honest if Messi has an injury he’s not going to drop from £9 to £1.50, unless it’s a career threatening disaster! In this example, if he was to drop around 20p, I would be biting.
However, it does vary from footballer to footballer, if Luka Modric gets injured, he won’t drop by 20p as it represents a huge % decrease, so you will need to consider the trading environment for each individual player.
Trust Your Sources!
It’s vital that you trust your sources when trading through injury speculation, you need credible people who aren’t just guessing.
This is because trading players which are injured can be extremely volatile. When you get it right, it’s extremely profitable, but if you follow accounts which are just guessing, you could find yourself in hot water pretty quick!
The most recent example I have is Santi Cazorla, he was supposed to return to action in early 2018, according to a few outlets. However, the player himself has now admitted that he has had another injury (while out injured!) meaning his recovery is being delayed further.
I would be going out of my mind now if I held Cazorla, I can’t see any potential trades in him. IF you hold him, consider the quick sell.
My Reason? This is his 9th operation for the same injury & he’s out for at least a year. You are looking at least 18 months before he’s able to play 90 minutes of football at the best of his ability. Will Wenger wait for Cazorla? He will be almost 34 at this point, so not a player Wenger can build a team around.
There were plenty of sources saying Cazorla is making an amazing recovery, but these proved false. IF you would have trusted these sources and started pouring your money in, you could have potentially lost some of your money.
It’s hard to find the best time to trade an injured player, if you leave it as late as until that player is announced on the team sheet, you have probably left it too late and there won’t be much profit left to make.
On the other hand, if you get excited too quickly and jump too soon, you may end up in a scenario like above!
Each trade is unique, so adjust to that player.
This trading method isn’t for everyone.
This is an emotional, tough trading method. For the majority of the trade, your player may be sitting in your portfolio generating a loss, but you need to sit tight during these stages and see this through. When I was trialling this trading method, I cancelled my trades too soon, due to fear that the players wouldn’t recover. I missed out on 58p on Pogba alone, which would have been great!
Give it a go, with small stakes, it’s a fun way to trade. It’s not as fun as Performance Buzz trades, but seeing your player climb and climb when he’s recovering from injury is a great thing.
Make sure you exit the trade at the right time! Unless you purchased the player as a long term investment.