On paper, the knockout stages of the Europe Competitions (EL & CL) seem like a great prospect!
The reason for this? It’s treated as a Treble Day, which is a great feat by Football Index.
The player pools are smaller, the dividend payout is higher.
Win Win? Not always!
If you already hold a player that’s part of a team in the latter stages of Europe (I am going to call it Europe as it’s shorter!), then this may not affect you as much.
However, if you are looking at purchasing a player for your portfolio, be cautious of who you are intending to acquire.
From the recent knockout games, Football Index users have noticed a sharp increase in players prices pre games. This is a combination of Buzz Hunters (I think I have just made this term up) & traders who are having a calculated gamble, hoping the teams wins, as this means their player will advance one stage further.
When it works, it’s a great strategy, however… it doesn’t always work unfortunately!
Today we have some elite casualties, many (myself included) thought that Dortmund would have turned around a 2-1 first leg defeat, but it proved too difficult a task.
The same for Lyon, I think most traders expected their 1-0 away win in the first leg to prove good enough, but they were also stunned.
The result is a HUGE drop in prices, Batshuayi & Depay have both lost almost 10% of their value at the start of the day.
Fekir also lost a significant amount, although he is out with a knee injury.
Trading this way is definitely profitable, but I would advise watching the match live, as you may need to hedge your bets at some point during the match. If you get the match result too late, you may already be at the back of the queue, unable to recover your money.
Hedging Your Bets
There are also ways to hedge your bets, saving as much money as possible, in some cases… making money!
The traditional way is to Quick Sell, for Example, tonight Lyon conceded 2 goals in 5 minutes, putting them 3-1 down on the night.
At this point, there won’t be many traders looking to buy Depay/Fekir at their ‘premium rate’, so you would be faced with no option to quick sell.
If you got purchased this player at a higher price than his quick sell value, you will obviously be able to walk away with a profit.
It’s not always the case though, and you may be forced to take a loss. Or Hold onto your man in hope of a recovery!
Another potential method, which involves added risk is actually LAYING your team on a betting exchange, although this isn’t risk free at all.
I am not stating this trading method does not, or never will work.
I am sure when it’s executed correctly, it will be able to earn you some money.
My Two examples above are random examples, you may find that a Premium Player could be knocked out of Europe, but maintain their price.
However, you do need to be careful when hedging bets on the betting exchanges, do so carefully and always weigh up the Risk/Reward.
There are many ways you can help yourself to make informed decisions before buying and selling players.
Previous Share Price of that player, does that player have any future prospects you can fall back onto? Even the famous Twitter hold for World Cup!
Just because a player has been knocked out of Europa League / Champions league, does not mean it’s the end of the road.
Yes, you have missed out on THE CHANCE of a £0.12 dividend, but there will be many elite players competing for the same prize!
You aren’t guaranteed the payout.
If you need any help, @FootyindexBlog on twitter.
I hope you find this useful!