The harshest thing that can happen to your portfolio is probably a player announcing a shock retirement, or a long term injury.
Due to the irregularity of a player announcing a shock retirement, it makes injuries the hardest really.
If you aren’t watching the match, or get the news late that a player is injured, because you are at work, or occupied in any other way, you are probably late to the bloodbath.
And I mean BLOODBATH.
This post today is being written purely because I saw Callum Hudson-Odoi picked up a nasty injury, rupturing his achilles. His price has dropped 21%, with him expected to be out injured for at least 6 months.
Is a 21% price drop an over-reaction?
On the surface, it definitely does seem like an over-reaction. In fact, he was over 15% down before the injury was confirmed as a ruptured achilles. The Moose tweeted initially saying it was achilles, before deleting it. This could have also stirred up some unneccessary tension, leading to more insta-sells than if there was no guessing.
I don’t think Callum Hudson Odoi would have featured in too many first team matches for Chelsea over the next 6 months. There is a chance he could have travelled with England, but his game time at Chelsea was definitely limited. This is the main reason he wanted to leave.
However, you can also see the flip side of the coin. You could say his drop was so steep due it being inflated in the first place.
I do find it hard to ignore this, so I have to mention it.
His price was inflated due to many possibilities, such as;
- Liverpool, Bayern Munich & Man Utd were amongst a line of clubs waiting to pounce
- His contract situation
- Potentially going on England Duty
- Hype (He is supposed to be the next big england talent). For the record, I don’t dispute this.
CHO has inflation on all fronts, which means that he is being held by lots of people on the Index. There are people who specialise in dividend winners, people who hold England players because they sweep up buzz on International Breaks, players who want the next Jadon Sancho (Almost £6 on the index). When an injury occurs with a player who has generated lots of interest, it’s only natural for traders to exit their positions. Especially if they picked him up at £1 or £2! After all, if they hold him to pick up International break Media Buzz, with him being out injured, it’s a close call whether he will be match fit or not.
Achilles injuries which changes players
Let me be completely honest hear and mention I have very little knowledge about injuries & recovery time, but I have done my fair share of Googling about the achilles injuries in general.
The consensus is that you’re sidelined for around 6 months, then it would take another month or two to build up match fitness and another month or two to be hitting your top form.
The only thing that worries me is that the Achilles injuries can ‘make or break’ players who have blistering pace & physical ability. Which CHO does.
Timing is everything.
Timing is most definitely everything when trading injured players, if you hold him or not!
If you do hold a player which has got injured, you need to try and get this info as soon as anybody else, or at least at the same time. This will give you a level playing field, meaning you have more time to analyse the injury, then keep or sell at the highest price available. If you don’t get this injury until say a few hours later, this decision has probably already been made for you. The player will have dropped quite a bit, so naturally you’ll be reluctant to sell.
If you don’t hold a player, but want to do a little bit of injury trading, which is what I call buying an injured player & selling on his return, you want to ensure you buy him as close to the bottomed out price as possible. If you buy before he bottoms out, you will also lose a considerable amount of money, unfortunately.
Timing really is everything, isn’t it!
Positives & Negatives about Injuries on the Index (For Non Holders)
I have dedicated this part for Non Holders, as if you hold an injured player, there are a tonne of negatives, with no positives.
For a non holder of an injured player, they would see an immediate effect of many traders moving on to different players. For example, if a player is out for 6 months, most traders wouldn’t want to sit on stagnant money, they would want to find another transfer rumour to trade on, a performance buzz winner to accumulate dividends with, and so on. This could see your portfolio rise a little as they start buying players that you may own.
It also gives traders a second-chance, to purchase that player they hesitated on before, who has now dropped to an acceptable price (although injured). Sure, you will have to hold him through an injury, but in hope his price recovers at a later date.
Even if you don’t hold an injured player, we can all see the negatives of another player becoming injured. Traders could lose confidence in the platform, be unwilling to invest larger amounts, due to a future potential injury.
The worst one for me is that every trader has witnessed the great bloodbath which occured when CHO ruptured his achilles, so now more than ever they will want to protect their portfolio to ensure they don’t lose 20% if their players get injured. This will inevitably create more bloodbaths, when a player does get injured.
I have aimed this post more towards Hudson-Odoi, but I do not currently hold him. I sold him on the way up to his peak price, but I will most likely get back in on Hudson during the Summer. With the summer media promotion paying the Top 5 places, I can see traders really chasing the dividends, with £0.08 on offer every day. Most of the media will be won my Transfer Speculation, so I think money will be flying around.
I expect Hudson to dip to around £3. That’s when I will end up getting involved.
It’s completely your decision whether to hold or sell, but you must be understanding that if you hold your existing player, there is a high chance you won’t earn dividends for the duration of the injury.