The English Premier League: Impact on Football Index Transfer Windows
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Leaving the Premier League Impact?
When a player has transfer speculation away from the Premier League, traders do tend to worry.
This combination of trader nerves and the transfer speculation will cause the player price to decrease, as traders ‘cash out’ their bets.
It’s very similar to cashing out a bookmaker bet when your team is 2-1 up. Ultimately, you might miss out on dividends, or a price increase, but it’s the safer option.
The Premier League is known as the ‘holy grail’ on Football Index due to the Media Buzz being predominantly based on UK Sources.
This ends up with the Premier League having the most exposure, as journalists write articles for their audience.
When a ‘Media Buzz Player’ leaves the Premier League, there is a risk that articles won’t be spun as frequent, meaning that the player has less chance of winning dividends.
Sure, the player can still win Match Day Dividends (in some cases their chances for winning this will increase), but the players that are £4+ are there for the ability to earn Media Dividends.
6/10 of the highest priced players are from the Premier League. The others?
Jadon Sancho, heavily linked to it! Lionel Messi, who is the GOAT. Kylian Mbappe, a teen sensation & Neymar, who is ever-present in the media.
Eden Hazard is the 10th most expensive player,but 3 months ago he was much higher up the rankings.
While his transfer speculation was building up, his price sat at £5.52. 2 months later, his transfer to Real Madrid has been confirmed, but his price has fallen to £4.47.
This is over £1 down from Peak, although it’s still well up over a 12 month period.
Since his transfer being confirmed, he hasn’t won any Media Buzz dividends, which would backup the theory that foreign leagues don’t have as much impact, unless you are Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi
Case Study – Paul Pogba
Paul Pogba – Current Situation Unknown – Real Madrid Rumoured Interest
The most recent Premier League rumour is Paul Pogba, who is looking for a fresh challenge.
It looks like Real Madrid want to sign him, which has affected his price on the Football Index.
Paul Pogba should be a player which collects media articles, regardless of the league that he plays in, but it’s an unknown entity.
At over £7 a share, there was sufficient risk applied to this, as traders saw what happened with Eden Hazard.
His price has corrected itself to around £6.70, which was a drop of around £0.40.
Equating to around a 3% drop, this is just traders who aren’t willing to take the risk.
Would 3% of you cashout, if your opponent had a free-kick on the edge of the box in the 90th minute?
The difference with this Transfer Saga in comparison to Eden Hazard’s, is that Pogba hasn’t spoken out too much regarding the transfer rumours.
Where Eden Hazard remained quiet, refusing to commit his future or even discuss it, Paul Pogba has travelled to Pre Season, took part in the Clubs promotional pictures for their website etc.
There’s no concrete evidence that Pogba is moving.
It was rumoured Pogba would be absent from the Pre Season Tour, but when he met up with the team, traders were fast to put their money back into him.
He rose to around £6.85, which was almost half of the initial drop.
To make Pogba holders happy, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer admitted in his Press Conference that United don’t have to sell any players, adding that they weren’t in negotiations for any outgoings.
This would upset United fans, who want multiple players out!
After this press conference, traders again launched their money at him, with his price now back at the £7 mark.
He has been higher than this, peaking at £8.36 (Pre Share Split, during a deposit bonus), but the market has since corrected.
He’s earnt over £2 in dividends, which is just incredible.
If Pogba remains at Man Utd
If Paul remains at Old Trafford, I expect his price to peak at around £8.
I must clarify that I don't hold shares in Paul Pogba.
There is wide speculation that Man Utd would be willing to sell him, next summer.
If this situation occurred, it would be a fascinating one to watch. As traders look to earn dividends, they would want to keep him in their portfolio for as long as possible, before the inevitable sell off.
If Pogba was to commit to Man Utd, signing a new contract for the forseeable future, I really wouldn’t be surprised to see him overtake Neymar as the most expensive player, before making his crossing over to that £10 barrier.
This wouldn’t be overnight, more a long-term idea. Paul Pogba is the highest Media Buzz earner this season, if he stays at Man Utd, I don’t see why it won’t be a Media Buzz Groundhog Day for the next few seasons.
Paul Pogba – Leaves Man Utd
We have already seen the potential effects of a Paul Pogba transfer saga.
When all of the traders dropped their shares, due to the high risk, low reward on offer, he dropped over 3% in a single day.
Transferring to Real Madrid could have even worse effects, as players such as Eden Hazard, Gareth Bale would be competing for Media Buzz, whilst he has to outperform Toni Kroos, Modric, Casemiro on the pitch.
Currently, he competes with Scott McTominay, Matic & Fred, but doesn’t ‘shine’ in the Match Day Rankings.
I only expect that his performances would decrease at Real Madrid, as he would have less responsibilities, such as penalties.
He’s a guaranteed taker at Old Trafford, but he would most likely be rotating with Hazard at Real.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Paul Pogba sit closer to the £5 mark at Real Madrid. However, the truth is that I don’t think his media presence will just vanish.
Premium Priced players are most likely to be effected with transfers away from the Premier League. This is due to the unknown future dividend potential, as traders don’t know for certain if the media will still report on players that are abroad.
What we do know is that the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo & Lionel Messi do achieve sufficient Media Buzz attention, although it must also be said that Cristiano Ronaldo’s Media Attention has dipped substantially since playing for Juventus.
If you’re a new trader, it’s probably better to avoid your first few transfer windows, as they can be quite volatile.